Potential Candidates To Challenge Brodeur’s Wins Record

The future of the all time goaltending wins record has been a hot topic of discussion recently since Martin Brodeur broke Patrick Roy’s all time wins record with 552 wins the other week. Most hockey analysts believe Martin Brodeur’s future record will never be broken, and most predict he will have around or over 700 wins before he calls it quits.

Martin Brodeur is under contract with the Devils for 3 more years following this season (he’ll be 40 yrs old when the contract expires). Over the course of Marty’s career he has averaged right around 42 wins a season when playing at least 65 games a year. Marty has played at least 65 games a year the 12 seasons prior to this injury riddled season this year where he’ll reach only 30 games played. But let’s forget about this season for now.

Right now Marty has 553 wins. If you take his average yearly wins of 42 and multiply that by 3 and add it to his current wins total you’re gonna get 679 wins (his projected total wins at 40 when his contract expires). Now the question is not can Marty average 40 or more wins over his next 3 years, but will he retire when his contract expires? We know the Devils will most likely be competitive over the course of the next three years, and Marty is as durable as any goaltender this game has seen, regardless of his age or recent injury, so it seems inevitable for that 670+ wins total to be reached. Let’s assume Marty reaches around that 670+ wins mark and calls it quits, on a good note (which I think he will do).

Now we get into the hard part..Who can challenge him, if anyone? I’m going to give you my three best candidates. Now remember, it takes three things to do what Marty Brodeur has accomplished. You have to be good, you have to play for a competitive team year in and year out and you have to not be injury prone.

My third candidate is Roberto Luongo of the Vancouver Canucks

Roberto Luongo turns 30 years old on April 4th. Roberto has already accumulated 226 wins in his career over nine seasons. Since Roberto has joined the Canucks he has averaged right around 40 wins a season, and has 29 wins this season so far in which he has missesd several games due to injury. Roberto who is signed with the Canucks through next season has recently stated he only wants to play for a competitor come free agency in 2010.

Roberto is by far the best goalie on my short list, but the problem he’ll have with even challenging the all time wins record is he played on bad teams throughout most of his career (6 years) until he joined the Canucks. Therefore he was unable to rack up 30 or more wins consistently, and he only topped out at 35 wins once. That will eventually catch up to him.

With Roberto and the other two goalies I chose, I’m putting each goalie through the same scenario Marty Brodeur went through (but projected), which means staying healthy, playing competitvely and living up to their potential. All best case scenarios, because if that wins record will even thought of being challenged, all of that will have to pan out. The projections only go up until Marty’s current age of 37. You’ll have to use your judgement if you want to fully project their career.

Let’s look at Roberto’s numbers.

Roberto Luongo’s age: 30

Roberto Luongo’s total wins right now: 226

Total seasons from now until he’s 37 years old: 7 seasons

Roberto Luongo’s projected yearly average wins: 40

7 seasons X 40 wins = 280 wins

280 wins + 226 wins = 506 wins

Marty Brodeur’s total wins through age 37 = 553+ wins

Best case scenario: Roberto Luongo’s projected total wins through age 37 = 506 wins

Unless Roberto can stay healthy and average over 40 wins a season I don’t see him coming close. There is no doubt Roberto should crack 500 wins when it’s all said and done, but like I said before, those mediocre seasons early on his career will be what hampers him coming close to the record.

My second candidate is Cam Ward of the Carolina Hurricanes.

Cam Ward just turned 25 years old and already has 117 wins in his career with still a handful of games left this season. After his rookie season (where he had only 28 games played), Cam has averaged right around 65 games played a season averaging right around 35 wins a season. Marty Brodeur didn’t reach the 60+ games played mark until his 4th season, and only had 82 wins through his first 4 seasons combined compared to Cam’s 117 and counting.

Cam has proven to be a great goalie so far with a Stanley Cup and Conn Smythe trophy in his resume. He has proven to be durable so far in his young career. And the Carolina Hurricanes have proven to be a fairly competitive team over his career despite some minor hiccups the last two seasons where they did not make the playoffs.

Let’s assume Cam stays with Hurricanes for the majority of his career after he becomes a RFA in 2010-2011. Let’s also assume the best case scenario that he stays injury free on a fairly competitive team until he is 37 years old (Marty’s age right now).

Let’s look at the numbers.

Cam Ward’s age: 25

Cam Ward’s total wins right now: 117

Total seasons from now until he’s 37 years old: 12 seasons

Cam Ward’s projected yearly average wins: 35

12 seasons X 35 wins = 420 wins

117 wins + 420 wins = 537 wins

Marty Brodeur’s total wins through age 37 = 553+ wins

Best case scenario: Cam Ward’s projected total wins through age 37 = 537 wins

The comparisons are actually pretty scary as you can see. If Cam can stay healthy over the next decade or so, and the Hurricanes can stay a respectable team, I see no reason why Cam Ward can’t rack up the wins, and who knows, maybe even challenge the record one day, but I doubt he’ll get that far.

My first candidate is Carey Price of the Montreal Canadiens

Carey Price the youngest of my three candidates who is only 21 years old. Coming off a strong rookie campaign where Carey won 24 games in only 41 appearances, he has taken a slight step back this season seeing only 48 appearances with only 22 wins, putting his total at only 2 more total wins than Cam Ward had at that point in his career.

Carey has all the talent in the world and as he grows older and more mature he will no doubt become one of the best goalies in the league and the Habs #1 for many years.

It’s hard to predict when that time will come, so I will go with the soonest possible option and assume Carey will start seeing full time duty as soon as next season. Let’s assume Carey will see at least 60 appearances starting next season, and if that is the case, Price should be projected at right around 35 wins (give or take) assuming his team stays somewhat competitive.

Let’s look at the numbers.

Carey Price’s age: 21

Carey Price’s total wins right now: 46+

Total seasons from now until he’s 37 years old: 16

Carey Price’s projected yearly average wins: 35

16 seasons X 35 wins = 560 wins

46 wins + 560 wins = 606 wins

Marty Brodeur’s total wins through age 37 = 553+ wins

Best case scenario: Carey Price’s projected total wins through age 37 = 606 wins

As you can see Carey Price has the best shot to tackle this future record assuming everything falls into place the best way I projected it to. If Carey can get his act together, he could go down as one of the greatest netminders to play this game because he has all the tools to do so and is playing for the right club to do it with.

Close Calls: Marc-Andre Fleury, Henrik Lundqvist